Market Memo
Charlotte
A single-utility Southeast market where gigawatt-scale contracted demand is arriving faster than the policy framework, making Duke Energy the gatekeeper for the entire pipeline.
Gridlocked's directional read-through on this market's ability to convert AI infrastructure demand into buildable capacity.
Executive Summary
Charlotte's buildout is unusually well documented on the utility side: Duke Energy has signed roughly 2.7 gigawatts of new data center service agreements around the metro, total contracted load has reached roughly 7.6 gigawatts, and its resource plan projects data centers at up to a quarter of Carolinas system demand by 2030. Named campus development is under way — two approved PowerHouse campuses and a roughly 311-acre, 400-megawatt Digital Realty assembly west of downtown. The friction arc is live: a packed moratorium hearing in May 2026, bills targeting tax-exemption rollback and data center cost allocation, and a recommendation from the state attorney general for a separate data center rate class.
Market Scorecard
0–100 directional Gridlocked framework scores. Higher means a stronger relative buildability signal, not guaranteed investment upside. Saturation is shown as a qualitative constraint signal.
Constraint Stack
Primary constraint
Site assembly
Financial-services demand and southeast growth help, though campus-scale options are more limited.
Saturation is a constraint signal — it reflects how much friction incremental growth faces, not whether the market is good or bad on its own.
Bull Case
If the regulatory framework lands without derailing cost recovery, contracted gigawatt-scale demand, available regional land, and a utility actively building for load growth can support a sustained Southeast expansion wave at lower saturation than tier-one markets.
Bear Case
A single regulated gatekeeper concentrates policy risk: an adverse rate-class outcome, tax-exemption repeal, or new permitting requirements could reprice the entire pipeline at once, while rising local opposition raises entitlement risk for unapproved sites.
Real Estate Read-Through
Sites with rezoning already secured screen at a premium as moratorium and special-use-permit proposals advance; data center buyers are already paying multiples of prevailing land values in the airport-west and University City corridors.
Vacancy
4.90%
9.5 MW available
Under Construction
32.1 MW
Preleased
88.00%
of capacity under construction
Net Available Pipeline
3.8 MW
Asking Rent Midpoint
$148
$/kW/month
Power Delivery Timeline
18–24 months
Additional metrics
Prior Period Rent Midpoint
$140
Secondary Constraint
Capital requirements
Major Demand Driver
Hyperscaler
Key Takeaways
Vacancy is 4.90% with 9.5 MW available against 191.9 MW of inventory.
32.1 MW is under construction and 88.00% is preleased, leaving 3.8 MW of net available pipeline.
American Tower delivered 1 MW at a localized tower site; developers holding land are looking for tenants ahead of 2027 substation delivery windows.
Data covers Charlotte-Raleigh combined market (CBRE); Duke Energy requiring power commitments and increased capital contributions; power generation near Charlotte at or near capacity
Market data sourced from CBRE North America Data Center Trends H1 2025 inputs entered into Gridlocked's market data workbook.
Source ID: CBRE_H1_2025_001
Key Risks
Rate-class and cost-allocation outcomes at the state utilities commission
Tax-exemption rollback legislation with leadership support
Moratorium and special-use-permit proposals in Charlotte
Pipeline materialization risk across 150-plus queued prospects
Catawba River water transparency questions
Public Market Read-Through
Public Exposure names that touch this market's constraint stack — potential beneficiaries and constrained exposures. Exposure can be positive, constrained, regulated, second-order, or mixed; this is read-through, not a buy list.
Digital Realty is a direct AI data center demand proxy, but Gridlocked treats it as a constrained operator: demand only matters when it can be converted into powered, connected, developable capacity.
Duke Energy is a regulated utility exposure to the Southeast power delivery bottleneck. Data center and industrial growth can support utility investment, but that demand only becomes shareholder value if Duke can plan, permit, finance, and recover the cost of generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure.
Data Status
Market memo content and scores are directional Gridlocked framework inputs based on public infrastructure, utility, site-control, water, demand, and saturation indicators. They are screening signals, not investment recommendations.