Gridlocked

Market Memo

Dallas-Fort Worth

A deep and growing hyperscale market with strong land availability and demand, but power interconnection and ERCOT volatility remain key underwriting variables.

Overall88
Power84
Fiber88
Land86
Water71
Policy78
Demand91
SaturationMedium

Executive Summary

Dallas-Fort Worth has the deepest hyperscale pipeline outside Northern Virginia. It combines land availability, dual-market optionality across two metros, hyperscale interest, and scalable development corridors, while forcing investors to underwrite grid interconnection timing, power procurement, and ERCOT volatility.

Constraint Stack

Primary

Grid interconnection

Saturation

Medium

A deep hyperscale pipeline with better land economics, though ERCOT volatility keeps power strategy central.

Saturation reflects how much friction incremental growth faces — not whether the market is good or bad on its own.

AI Infrastructure

Sourced

Current AI infrastructure supply, demand, and delivery conditions.

H2 2025 / Texas

CBRE North America Data Center Trends H2 2025

Inventory

1,067.3 MW

Vacancy

2.40%

25.6 MW available

Available

25.6 MW

Under Construction

700 MW

Preleased

94.50%

of capacity under construction

Net Available Pipeline

38.5 MW

Asking Rent Midpoint

$150

$/kW/month

Power Delivery Timeline

18–30 months

Primary Constraint

Permitting

Major Demand Driver

Hyperscaler

Net Absorption

470.8 MW

Prior Period Rent Midpoint

$145

Rent Growth

3.40%

Secondary Constraint

Land

Sourced from CBRE North America Data Center Trends H2 2025. Source ID: CBRE_H2_2025_001.

Industrial Real Estate

Sourced

Current industrial real estate conditions surrounding the data center ecosystem.

Q1 2026

CBRE Industrial MarketView Q1 2026

Current Market Conditions

Industrial Inventory

1025.24 MSF

Total square feet

Vacancy Rate

9.3%

% of inventory

Availability Rate

10.1%

% of inventory

Average Asking Rent

$10.13/SF NNN

$/SF/year NNN

Space Under Construction

16,500,000 SF

Square feet

Deliveries (Current Quarter)

6,780,000 SF

Square feet delivered during the reporting quarter.

Market Momentum

Net Absorption (T12M)

Square feet, trailing 12 months

Rent Growth (YoY)

1.9%

%

Source

CBRE Industrial MarketView

Reporting Period

Q1 2026

Market

Dallas-Fort Worth

Last Updated

June 2026

Gridlocked View

Proprietary market synthesis.

Gridlocked's proprietary interpretation of how infrastructure constraints influence industrial real estate and investment opportunities in this market.

Current State

Summarize the current relationship between AI infrastructure conditions and the surrounding industrial real estate market.

Why It Matters

Explain why these conditions matter for real estate investors, developers, and public market participants.

What Changes Next?

Identify the developments or catalysts most likely to change the investment outlook over the next 6–24 months.

Bull Case

A large land base, dual-market optionality across two metros, scalable development corridors, and continued hyperscaler interest support a durable campus development pipeline.

Bear Case

Grid interconnection timing, power price volatility, heat and cooling load, and competition from other Texas markets can complicate returns and delivery windows.

Key risks

  • ERCOT volatility and power price exposure
  • Interconnection queue timing
  • Heat-driven cooling load
  • Competition across Texas development corridors

Public Market Readthrough

Public companies exposed to this market's constraint stack — potential beneficiaries and risk exposures. Exposure can be positive, constrained, regulated, second-order, or mixed. This is read-through, not a buy list.

EQIX

Equinix

85

Equinix has direct exposure to AI and cloud infrastructure demand through its global data center and interconnection platform. The Gridlocked question is not whether demand exists; it is whether Equinix can continue converting that demand into powered, connected, high-value capacity in constrained markets. Its interconnection ecosystem is a strength, but growth still depends on power, site availability, cooling, and capital discipline.

DLR

Digital Realty

85

Digital Realty is a direct AI data center demand proxy, but Gridlocked treats it as a constrained operator: demand only matters when it can be converted into powered, connected, developable capacity.

CEG

Constellation Energy

78

Constellation is a public-market expression of the AI power bottleneck through clean firm generation, especially nuclear. The company does not solve land or fiber constraints, but it sits close to the question of whether data center growth can be matched with reliable, carbon-sensitive power supply. The exposure is meaningful, but outcomes depend on power prices, contract structures, regulatory treatment, grid constraints, and the economics of supplying large-load customers.

VST

Vistra

74

Vistra is a public-market expression of the power availability bottleneck through generation capacity and competitive power markets. If AI/data center load growth tightens power supply-demand balances, Vistra may benefit from higher power and capacity value. But this is market-sensitive exposure, not a simple infrastructure utility story.

ETN

Eaton

73

Eaton is one of the cleaner supplier-side ways to express the power bottleneck thesis, but Gridlocked treats the exposure as equipment-cycle sensitivity rather than automatic upside.

PWR

Quanta Services

73

Quanta is a public-market way to express the grid construction side of the AI infrastructure bottleneck. If data center demand forces utilities and power markets to upgrade transmission, distribution, substations, and interconnection infrastructure, Quanta sits close to the physical work required to turn load growth into deliverable power.

Market memo content and scores are directional Gridlocked framework inputs based on public infrastructure, utility, site-control, water, demand, and saturation indicators. They are screening signals, not investment recommendations. Industrial Real Estate and Gridlocked View sections will be populated as sourced data is added.